[Abstract] From the end of September to the National Day holiday, waste paper, raw paper, etc. staged a reversal and reversal of the market, price increases, price declines, price increases, stop. Everything seems to have been confusing, the market that I can't understand, the cardboard that stopped trading, the waste paper that bottomed up, but the central axis has not changed! That is: the rise and fall of all waste paper is to maintain the high price of the original paper!

Stable in the stable

 

At present, this part of the carton manufacturing industry has not been affected by the big impact, and it is relatively stable. Whether it is a three-stage factory specializing in cartons or a purely carton and a second-class factory with reasonable board and board, the price of cardboard has risen steadily and slightly. The price has not dropped much, and it can be said that the stable profit of the order has a good performance.

 

In the near term, the most feared by the carton factory is not the price increase but the price drop of the source. It is the season of the peak season. Once the price has risen, the price will rise to the pressure of the end customer to ask for price reduction, and it will also lead to the low price of some peers. Entering the grab, the price is stable or the slight increase in price will help the carton to stabilize the market dynamics, and will not cause big turbulence. On the contrary, the carton factory does not want the price to skyrocket, because once it has skyrocketed and can last for a week, it will form a new cardboard stocking and snapping atmosphere, which will lead to the strategic increase of the original paper and cardboard, and finally fall into a new routine cycle. .

 

In the long run, there is a need to pay attention to a new direction in this part of the carton. In this case, the second-level factory will change its business model in order to be able to operate stably for a long time under the situation that the board market is basically determined this year. The second-stage factory that simply makes cardboard turns to a carton. Only by mastering the order of the carton can we ensure stable production instead of using the price method to obtain the cardboard order. It is more important to maintain the normal start-up in the absence of the cardboard order than to maintain a stable profit. Without the normal boot, there is nothing.

 

As for how to operate a carton, it is a separate way to open up the carton market. The initial method is low price (cardboard price + 0.3 yuan processing fee), this low price hits customers directly impacting the third-tier factory, the third-level factory does not make money for the cardboard factory. The price of the carton without losing money makes it difficult for the third-level factory to hold the customer. The cardboard factory realizes the big killer for selling cardboard by selling the carton. The third-level factory needs to think about it. There is also a way to develop the carton business. The simple paperboard factory and the third-level factory jointly operate together, and use the price strategy higher than the price of “cardboard price +0.3” lower than the price of the existing three-level factory to enter the market and seize the second level of the existing carton. Factory carton customer. Regardless of which strategy you choose to get into the carton, it has a profound impact on the existing carton landscape.

 

Don't dare to rise up the cardboard

 

In the case of the double-fall of waste paper and base paper before the holiday, the paperboard factory appeared quite mild without any signs and intentions of price cuts. What caused the price collapse to affect the price of cardboard?

 

We divide the cycle from September 2016 to September 2018 into two phases:

 

The first stage (suddenly good): From September 2016 to January 2017, this stage of the paperboard factory has faced the market that has never appeared in the industry for more than 20 years. It has never been tight in paper supply, never sold cardboard enough, never Do not ask the price, only ask if there is no goods, never have cash or not, from the ring to the tension to the skyrocketing profits. It can be said that in this wave of market, although the paperboard factory has obtained extraordinary profits, it still basically has the awe of the downstream third-tier factory customers, adopts the proportion of historical transaction records, reasonably transmits the cost, and purchases the stable supply of the original paper. And other positive measures to ensure a good interaction between cardboard and carton.

 

The profit turned better and the mentality was positive.

 

The second stage (reward is good): From February 2017 to February 208, at this stage, after the taste of the previous year's good taste, the paperboard factory will gradually become more appetizing, learn the capital operation routine and consciously adjust the cardboard market, gradually Turning the threat of upstream price hikes into a turning point in their own price hikes, the upstream rises 1 cardboard and rises 2, and at the same time tries to cooperate with the upstream use of environmental protection, safety supervision, national waste price increase, and external waste tension, and take the initiative to attack the price of cardboard. Price hikes - limit purchases - stop orders - the price hikes are in full swing, and of course the profits are exponentially multiplied. While achieving good profits, the rapid increase in production capacity in the next step, the cardboard line increased rapidly.

 

The profits doubled and the mind was proud.

 

The third stage (good stalemate): from March 2018 to August 2018, this stage is caused by the combination of increased raw paper production capacity, increased cardboard production capacity, reduced downstream demand, serious imbalance between supply and demand, and Sino-US trade war. During the period, the price has been in the stage of multi-party game. The prices of waste paper, base paper and cardboard are often ups and downs. The original paper rises, the original paper does not rise, and the waste paper falls. Although the cardboard and the original paper used all the plausible opportunities to try to raise the price many times, but each time they failed to return, it was really in a stalemate stage of stalemate. In the face of the double decline in production and sales, the paperboard factory has become anxious and seemingly helpless, especially in the 17-year-old enterprises that have increased production lines during the peak period, and added some panic in Jiaozuo.

 

The profit fell and the mentality was anxious.

 

The fourth stage (good collapse): September 2018 to the present, this stage is the most anticipated month for the whole year of the paperboard factory. If the bad market in January-August can be tolerated, then the traditional month must come. It is the biggest hope of the paperboard factory. As long as the price will rise in September and the sales volume will definitely go up, the annual profit is still worth looking forward to. However, after the situation in which the demand side was completely reduced was confirmed by the market, the original paper and waste paper suffered a big drop after half a year, and they rushed to the end! The hope that the price of paperboard mills rose twice was completely shattered in September, when the peak season was not prosperous, and the profit-making market collapsed compared with 17 years.

 

The profit is hopeless and the mentality is cold.

 

Now that the demand is obviously insufficient for overcapacity, the cardboard factory does not dare to raise the price, fearing that the price increase will lead to the loss of orders; the same paperboard factory does not dare to drop the price, because the processing cost of the existing cardboard has reached the floor price, and it will fall and fall. It is necessary to lose money.

 

Paper that does not fall or fall

 

With the great changes in the two-year carton industry, whether it is from the media or official reports and professional financial reports, the words "promising bullishness", "recent bearishness", "big market trend" and "banker speculation" are also used in the words "very tall". In the very traditional industry of cardboard boxes, as the vocabulary changes, the profitability of the paper-making enterprises caught in it also abandons the poor profit margin of about 3-5% and soars to 15%. Just like "buying a house" is not "buying a house" but there is no substantial difference between investing and buying stocks. "Buy" is not for "use" but for "selling." "Paper making" has become a tool not only for packaging but for the realization of capital profit. It is just a tool for investment, just like "stock", "gold" and "house".

 

When the papermaking industry is equipped with the wings of "financial investment", the development trend of the industry and the trend of prices will naturally deviate from the "supply and demand" criterion. The weather is uncertain and volatile! If there is no ups and downs, there is no chance of speculation. If you see this, it is not difficult to understand why the market of the paper industry is unpredictable.

 

The base paper fell from the tentative price of 50-100 of the leading enterprises to 300 on the last day before the festival, and the cumulative price dropped by 400-500 yuan/ton. It seems that everyone is shocked and an avalanche seems inevitable.

 

The drama of "big fall" is enough. Who is it for? The final act is to find someone who buys tickets, who will buy tickets? Of course it is the downstream cardboard factory!

 

However, in the case of a sudden and favorable market, the paperboard factory has not had time to make a decision on the amount of purchases and raise funds, and it is a holiday! Even if you want to buy or buy more, the time is too late, and the difference is that the large-scale long-term suspension of the national paper mills. It means that you have to either buy it or help him digest the inventory.

 

The amount of this round of falling prices can really be converted into effective low-priced sales will not be large.

 

The price drop is for the price increase after the holiday. The price increase will definitely pull back the original point of the decline. At the same time, if this round of price increase is realized, it will continue to rise above the original point and obtain a good situation in which the price increases. If the continuous price increase cannot be achieved, the minimum demand should also maintain the high price of the origin. For listed companies, in addition to the emphasis on profit margins, the value of the profit rate is more stable, and the gains and losses of the capital market are more direct and important than the rise and fall of operating profits.

 

Routine and waste paper

 

Since we know that large-scale price declines will not result in large-scale sales, why should we intensively and high-profilely announce price declines? The second-level factory that bought the tickets in this lively drama didn’t really buy tickets to enter the market. Who would it look for? A good show of fighting a cow across the mountain is done to the waste paper dealers!

 

The paper market, which reached its lowest point on September 30 and fell to the limit, rose back with the continuous 7-liter rise of paper mills such as Lee & Man. Let the waste paper merchants be forced again, is this waste paper accepted or not? Not to accept, but the price has risen again, in case of missing the next opportunity to make money? Received, the wound that has just been bitten has not healed, what if it is a pit?

 

Before September 2016, the cooperation relationship between waste paper and paper mills was stable. Waste paper manufacturers tried their best to recycle waste paper and sell it to paper mills to make a reasonable profit. Although there were water and adulterations during the period, it basically did not affect normal. Trading, the waste paper merchant's profitability is very reliable, it can be said that although there is no big fish and big meat every day, you can ensure that you drink alcohol every day.

 

After September 2016, everything changed because of the sudden changes in the paper market. The biggest change is the number of roads and stability of waste paper makers.

 

The road to earning money no longer relies on normal recycling profits, and learns the game between the paper mills. This game is actually a cause and effect between waste paper and papermaking. It is impossible to say who is actively raising prices and who is passively raising prices. The increase in waste paper led to the purchase price increase of paper mills. The purchase price increase of paper mills led to the increase in the price of raw paper. The increase in the price of raw paper led to the increase in the purchase price of waste paper merchants. The increase in the purchase price of waste paper led to the increase in the price of waste paper merchants. This is a complete The link, the price increase in all links of a link.

 

Routine and quilt of waste paper: In such a link, the way waste paper merchants deal with paper mills is mainly two kinds of goods, stop the supply, the early dumping or the internal distribution of waste paper merchants, and later because of the waste paper market Too good and waste paper has indeed mastered the throat of the paper mill's production capacity and profitability, resulting in a large amount of foreign capital entering the waste paper through lending, equity participation, and direct investment. In this way, the waste paper market is completely out of the law of the industry itself, and has become the same financial product as stocks and real estate. In order to achieve profiteering, “selling goods” has become the most effective means. The value of waste paper that is different from other financial products lies in circulation. And can not long-term preservation, waste paper without circulation can not realize the realization of benefits. Waste paper merchants can pick up the goods for a week or so, but the paper mills can't have no waste paper for a week, so the waste paper realizes the process of “selling goods” to the realization of benefits. Based on such interests, many waste paper manufacturers also It is unintentional to join the waste paper recycler instead of the waste paper recycler.

 

The waste paper merchants’ hype, the paper mills are not invisible but the door is clear. The speculation of waste paper was instead used by the paper mills. The paper mills used the rising price of waste paper to publicize the price increase to the paperboard factory. "I don’t want to go up. The waste paper is really rising. In order to transfer costs, my The price increase is also helpless. The paper mills pushed the price of fuel to strengthen the determination of the paper price increase and continue to purchase and dump goods. When the waste paper dealers have high prices, the paper mills suddenly cut prices and stopped. Received, then only low-cost shipments. At this moment, the waste paper helped the paper mill to push up the price of a large amount of waste paper and was thoroughly utilized. The “paper waste” on October 20 last year was a classic case.

 

Carton tomorrow

 

We can never do the dealer's waste paper merchants, and we don't need to continue to resist the paper mills in the routine, but to be the industry source stabilizer.

 

The paper mill used the false price of the original paper to change the waste paper, and completed a round of profit ransacking!

 

Cardboard mills that are already in a hurry are no longer waiting for uncertain upswings, but are looking for long-term stable operations.

 

A stable and calm carton factory needs a stable price supply system to put real energy into technology upgrades, service upgrades, and product upgrades.

 

From long-term fine management to rough operation under huge profits, from the cooperative operation under normal conditions to the routine operation in front of the lure, from the friendly cooperation between the upstream and the downstream to the intimidation and exploitation of the brothers, from the situation last year to the present, it is in jeopardy. I thought about it all the way to the calm thinking of the current market.

 

All of this is due to the contempt for the laws of the market, the lack of respect for customers, and the contempt for the future development of the market. The carton that has become ugly by the rust of the patina will definitely be beautiful again tomorrow!